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"Is This China Rally For Real?" - Goldman's Flows Guru Says 'Yes' | ZeroHedge

历史资料 2024年05月05日 332 次阅读阅读原文

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核心导读高盛的资金流动专家提出了一个问题：“这次中国股市的反弹是真实的吗？”他认为，中国股市的活动增加并不仅仅是对空头头寸的覆盖，还有一些积极因素在发展。他列举了一系列可能成为催化剂的因素，包括全面放松政策、需求侧刺激、针对私营经济的增强信心政策、政府对房地产和

**On Jan 24th,** we posted a recommendation on our Premium-Subscriber twitter
feed, suggesting subscribers: _**"Get Long FXI here..."**_

Like many of the reccs on this exclusive feed, it has done rather well...

[![](/Media/editor/other2024-05-056590787379686586/2024-05-057875667787908466.jpg)](/s3/files/inline-
images/bfm17D2.jpg?itok=jyC9hGIH)

_([Subscribe to Premium ZeroHedge here](https://www.zerohedge.com/premium))_

The question is, after gaining 30%, do we stay with the trade - or as Goldman
Sachs flow of funds guru asks (and answers) today: _**"Is This China Rally for
Real?"**_

His answer is simple:

We have seen our most China activity on the desk this week in 2024 via a mix
of investor types. We think is more than just short covering as there are
green shoots developing. We have had notable Long Only demand, this is new. I
will be spending time on this over the weekend, so sharing the trade thesis
more broadly.

The Chinese equity market is breaking out on high volume, including when
southbound connect is on holiday. Why? Catalysts in the coming weeks/months
include the long-delayed Third Plenum and more specific policies related to
the overall guidance of the Nine measures.

_ **Full Checklist of catalysts, flows, and macro ideas below for TCT:**_

**I. GS Research presents several possible catalysts that could potentially
turn the entrenched negative expectation and sentiment around.**

>  _1\. a comprehensive and forceful easing package_
>
>  _2\. demand-side-focused stimulus_
>
>  _3\. confidence boosting policy targeting the private economy_
>
>  _4\. government backstop in the housing and stock markets_
>
>  _5\. improvements and predictability in US-China relations_

**II. The new “Nine Measures”**

>  _a. GS Research triangulates the potential policy-driven upside through the
> lens of shareholder returns, corporate governance standards, and
> institutional investor ownership._
>
>
> _[![](/Media/editor/other2024-05-056590787379686586/2024-05-058075687389887273.jpg)](/s3/files/inline-
> images/exhibit_1.img_.jpg?itok=x4MdpdLc)_
>
>  _b. GS Research analysis suggests that A-shares could rise ~20% if they
> could narrow the gaps with international averages along these dimensions,
> and could re-rate as much as 40% if they catch up with global leaders in our
> blue-sky scenario._

**III. Positioning is currently short and underweight and FOMO is on the
rise.**

** _1\. Hedge Fund Positioning:_**

>  _a. Both Gross and Net allocations to China increased in April, but
> continue to stay close to 5-year lows. Gross allocation to China increased
> to 5.1% (7th percentile five-year), while Net allocation increased to 7.5%
> (10th percentile five-year)._
>
>  _b. The 5 year low of gross exposure was 4.7% on March 27th and low net
> exposure in January of 6.2%. (for context the 5 year high gross was 9.1% in
> Jan 2021 and net of 15.3% in July 2020)._
>
>  _c. Chinese equities were moderately net bought (+0.5 SD) in April and are
> now net bought in four of the past five months._
>
>  _d. Chinese domiciled equities (onshore and offshore combined) were net
> bought with long buys exceeding short covers in a ratio of 5 to 1. Flows
> were risk_

Trading Flows: China (Onshore + Offshore)

[![](/Media/editor/other2024-05-056590787379686586/2024-05-056579838888887385.jpg)](/s3/files/inline-
images/0%20%2813%29_1.jpg?itok=Zy9WuX0_)

_Source: Goldman Sachs_

Positioning: China (Onshore + Offshore):

[![](/Media/editor/other2024-05-056590787379686586/2024-05-056767736976668175.jpg)](/s3/files/inline-
images/0%20%2814%29_1.jpg?itok=CIgQvMDJ)

_Source: Goldman Sachs_

[![](/Media/editor/other2024-05-056590787379686586/2024-05-056766827978736770.jpg)](/s3/files/inline-
images/0%20%2815%29_1.jpg?itok=UWoCxtK8)

_Source: Goldman Sachs_

_[![](/Media/editor/other2024-05-056590787379686586/2024-05-058583718165816667.jpg)](/s3/files/inline-
images/0%20%2816%29_1.jpg?itok=HyhqVaj_)_

_Source: Goldman Sachs_

** _2\. Global Mutual Funds (as of Mar-end):_**

Based on EPFR data, mutual funds globally in aggregate have 5.2% allocation in
Chinese equities as of end-March, which represents 1st percentile over the
past decade .

[![](/Media/editor/other2024-05-056590787379686586/2024-05-057283707382907666.jpg)](/s3/files/inline-
images/0%20%2817%29_1.jpg?itok=gSA1KUFE)

_Source: Goldman Sachs_

On asset-weighted basis, active mutual fund mandates remain underweight
Chinese equities by 320bps vs. benchmark.

[![](/Media/editor/other2024-05-056590787379686586/2024-05-057384788990766566.jpg)](/s3/files/inline-
images/0%20%2818%29_1.jpg?itok=r4eS56CP)

_Source: Goldman Sachs_

Global, EM, and AEJ long-only mandates modestly increased their allocations in
Chinese equities in March.

[![](/Media/editor/other2024-05-056590787379686586/2024-05-058265716889698669.jpg)](/s3/files/inline-
images/0%20%2819%29_1.jpg?itok=4b5ghezj)

Source: Goldman Sachs

** _3\. Southbound/Northbound Trading Flows:_**

A-shares have seen US$10.3bn Northbound inflows ytd, surpassing the US$8.1bn
for full-year 2023.

Southbound saw strong buying of US$27bn ytd.

[![](/Media/editor/other2024-05-056590787379686586/2024-05-057769747887827585.jpg)](/s3/files/inline-
images/0%20%2820%29_1.jpg?itok=iMe2_pvR)

_Source: Goldman Sachs_

_ **4\. Options - During NYC Macro trading, we are seeing hedge fund buyers
of call options and ETF’s.**_

We’re now **witnessing a strong chase for HK/China upside** (outsized call
option volumes yesterday in both FXI and KWEB).

[![](/Media/editor/other2024-05-056590787379686586/2024-05-058479748367868467.jpg)](/s3/files/inline-
images/0%20%2821%29_2.jpg?itok=r6NXPtkZ)

_Source: Lee Coppersmith, Goldman Sachs_

**FXI 1month put-call skew is now back near all-time lows following this
week’s rally, signaling increased demand for upside exposure.**

_([Subscribe to Premium ZeroHedge here](https://www.zerohedge.com/premium))_

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"Is This China Rally For Real?" - Goldman's Flows Guru Says 'Yes' | ZeroHedge

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